Player breakdown
Jay Ajayi
Boise St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-0221 lbs5th round, 149th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
61%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | MIA | 9 | 49 | 187 | 1 | 7 | 90 | 0 | 277 |
| 2016 | MIA | 15 | 260 | 1,272 | 8 | 27 | 151 | 0 | 1,423 |
| 2017 | PHI | 7 | 70 | 408 | 1 | 10 | 91 | 1 | 499 |
| 2018 | PHI | 4 | 45 | 184 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 204 |
| 2019 | PHI | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Boise State | Mountain West | 0 | 82 | 548 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 562 |
| 2013 | Boise State | Mountain West | 9 | 226 | 1,328 | 17 | 16 | 189 | 1,517 |
| 2014 | Boise State | Mountain West | 11 | 325 | 1,689 | 25 | 45 | 536 | 2,225 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
61%
ML model output
Context Prob
61%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
4.57s forty — slow speed+0.395
1,434 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.376
Catch radius: 91.5 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236
Top Negative Factors
4.10s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
1 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
10.07 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360