Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jerious Norwood
Jerious Norwood

Player breakdown

Jerious Norwood

Mississippi St. · 2006 Draft Class

6-0210 lbs3rd round, 79th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

38%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2006ATL14996332121020735
2007ATL151036131282770890
2008ATL16954894363382827
2009ATL10762520191861438
2010ATL228019017
2011STL92461000061
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003Mississippi StateSEC111116052729634
2004Mississippi StateSEC51951,050711371,087
2005Mississippi StateSEC01911,136619961,232

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

38%

ML model output

Context Prob

38%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 112.1 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.40s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 90.2 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.25s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush td rate-0.411
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)