Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jermar Jefferson
Jermar Jefferson

Player breakdown

Jermar Jefferson

Oregon St. · 2021 Draft Class

5-10206 lbs7th round, 257th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~26
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

37%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2021DET715742423097
2024DET26220110032
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2018Oregon StatePac-1242391,38012251471,527
2019Oregon StatePac-1251426858985770
2020Oregon StatePac-1201338587967925

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

37%

ML model output

Context Prob

37%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.57s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 85.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
29 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

4.38s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
7.41 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
43 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)