Predicting the Pros
Predictions/J.J. Arrington
J.J. Arrington

Player breakdown

J.J. Arrington

California · 2005 Draft Class

5-9214 lbs2nd round, 44th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
HighMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

60%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2005ARI151123702251390509
2006ARI1614190858077
2007ARI1626780292411319
2008ARI11311871292551442
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003CaliforniaACC11102604518171775
2004CaliforniaACC92641,8451420911,936

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

60%

ML model output

Context Prob

60%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.40s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 86.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227

Top Negative Factors

4.10s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
9.05 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
38 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)