Predicting the Pros
Predictions/J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins

Player breakdown

J.K. Dobbins

Ohio St. · 2020 Draft Class

5-9209 lbs2nd round, 55th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
Medium1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

45%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2020BAL151348059181200925
2022BAL89252027421562
2023BAL18221215037
2024LAC1319590593215301,058
2025DEN10153772411370809
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2017Ohio StateBig Ten71811,3647221351,499
2018Ohio StateBig Ten72231,0299232481,277
2019Ohio StateBig Ten122831,82920172002,029

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

45%

ML model output

Context Prob

45%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,601 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227
41 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
9.71 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Physical upside: 0.56 — average athletic ceiling-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)