Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Joe McKnight
Joe McKnight

Player breakdown

Joe McKnight

USC · 2010 Draft Class

5-11198 lbs4th round, 112th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~38
EliteMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

77%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2010NYJ93918903200209
2011NYJ15431340131390273
2012NYJ153017901180197
2014KAN2130664267
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2007USCBig Ten084415217158573
2008USCBig Ten084646220184830
2009USCBig Ten01641,0148221461,160

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

77%

ML model output

Context Prob

77%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.40s forty — average speed+0.395
Conference-adjusted speed score: 105.7 — speed measured against quality competition+0.309

Top Negative Factors

Rb rush td rate-0.411
59 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Recruiting pedigree did not match production output-0.229

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)