Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon

Player breakdown

Joe Mixon

Oklahoma · 2017 Draft Class

2nd round, 48th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

70%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017CIN141786264302870913
2018CIN142371,16884329611,464
2019CIN162781,13753528731,424
2020CIN61194283211381566
2021CIN162921,205134231431,519
2022CIN1421081476044121,255
2023CIN172571,03495237631,410
2024HOU142451,016113630911,325
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2015OklahomaSEC01107497253451,094
2016OklahomaSEC01681,1838324491,632

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

70%

ML model output

Context Prob

70%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
1,363 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.351

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)