Predicting the Pros
Predictions/John Kelly
John Kelly

Player breakdown

John Kelly

Tennessee · 2018 Draft Class

5-10216 lbs6th round, 176th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~29
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

3%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018LAR4277402270101
2019LAR43900009
2021CLE4213000013
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2015TennesseeSEC036161000161
2016TennesseeSEC4835604651611
2017TennesseeSEC51897789372991,077
2025KansasBig 121180008

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

3%

ML model output

Context Prob

3%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Catch radius: 87.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
4.99 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.206
13 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

4.51s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush td rate-0.411

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)