Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jonathan Stewart
Jonathan Stewart

Player breakdown

Jonathan Stewart

Oregon · 2008 Draft Class

5-10235 lbs1st round, 13th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
EliteAll-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008CAR16184836108470883
2009CAR162211,133101813911,272
2010CAR14178770281031873
2011CAR1614276144741311,174
2012CAR9933361171571493
2013CAR64818007440224
2014CAR131758093251811990
2015CAR132429896169911,088
2016CAR1321882498600884
2017CAR1519868068521732
2018NYG3617000017
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005OregonBig Ten0511826745227
2006OregonBig Ten017696010191351,095
2007OregonBig Ten02571,46910201161,585

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

96%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 118.8 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429

Top Negative Factors

Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324
46 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb rush share of scrimmage-0.162

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)