Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor

Player breakdown

Jonathan Taylor

Wisconsin · 2020 Draft Class

5-10226 lbs2nd round, 41st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
EliteDoak Walker x2All-American x2All-Conference x21000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 6Heisman votes: 304NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2020IND152321,169113629911,468
2021IND173321,811184036022,171
2022IND1119286142814301,004
2023IND101697417191531894
2024IND143031,431111813611,567
2025IND173231,585184637821,963
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2017WisconsinBig Ten92731,847137821,929
2018WisconsinBig Ten62801,989158602,049
2019WisconsinBig Ten112991,90921242092,118

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

91%

ML model output

Context Prob

91%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

2 All-Conference selections — back-to-back conference dominance+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 121.7 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
2,032 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396

Top Negative Factors

4.24s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
9.37 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
39 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)