Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jonathan Williams
Jonathan Williams

Player breakdown

Jonathan Williams

Arkansas · 2016 Draft Class

5-11220 lbs5th round, 156th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

48%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2016BUF112794110094
2018NOR33001101
2019IND94923515590294
2020DET5150421026
2021WAS5177914280107
2022WAS133715207400192
2023WAS11-20000-2
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2012ArkansasSEC14523108208439
2013ArkansasSEC61509004772972
2014ArkansasSEC81881,0851111651,150

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

48%

ML model output

Context Prob

48%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.56s forty — slow speed+0.395
21 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
Rb scrimmage yards per touch+0.176

Top Negative Factors

Rb rush td rate-0.411
26 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Recruiting pedigree did not match production output-0.229

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)