Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jordan Howard
Jordan Howard

Player breakdown

Jordan Howard

Indiana · 2016 Draft Class

6-0230 lbs5th round, 150th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~31
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2016CHI152521,31362929811,611
2017CHI162761,12292312501,247
2018CHI1625093592014501,080
2019PHI10119525610691594
2020PHI2727000027
2021PHI78640632190425
2022NOR21100001
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013UABAmerican Athletic31458812483964
2014UABAmerican Athletic93061,587139721,659
2015IndianaBig Ten01961,2139111061,319

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

96%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.57s forty — slow speed+0.395
Conference-adjusted speed score: 105.5 — speed measured against quality competition+0.309

Top Negative Factors

11 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb rush share of scrimmage-0.182
Rb rush yards per game-0.126

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)