Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs

Player breakdown

Josh Jacobs

Alabama · 2019 Draft Class

5-10220 lbs1st round, 24th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~28
HighAll-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

59%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019OAK132421,15072016601,316
2020LVR152731,065123323801,303
2021LVR1521787295434801,220
2022LVR173401,653125340002,053
2023LVR1323380563729601,101
2024GNB173011,329153634211,671
2025GNB15234929133628211,211
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2016AlabamaSEC084548413169717
2017AlabamaSEC043276112165441
2018AlabamaSEC0944951115171666

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

56%

ML model output

Context Prob

56%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
3.26 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.58 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
40 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)