Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Joshua Kelley
Joshua Kelley

Player breakdown

Joshua Kelley

UCLA · 2020 Draft Class

5-11212 lbs4th round, 112th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

43%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2020LAC141113542231480502
2021LAC103310205380140
2022LAC13692872141010388
2023LAC1710740528320437
2024TEN31200002
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2018UCLABig Ten82251,24312271931,436
2019UCLABig Ten92291,0601211711,131

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

43%

ML model output

Context Prob

43%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.49s forty — average speed+0.395
Conference-adjusted speed score: 104.3 — speed measured against quality competition+0.280
Catch radius: 86.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.28s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)