Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Justin Forsett
Justin Forsett

Player breakdown

Justin Forsett

California · 2008 Draft Class

5-8194 lbs7th round, 233rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~40
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

66%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2009SEA161146194413501969
2010SEA161185232332520775
2011SEA16461451231280273
2012HOU166337413380412
2013JAX9631015820113
2014BAL162351,26684426301,529
2015BAL101516412311530794
2016DEN44315517340189
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2004CaliforniaACC1114910049
2005CaliforniaACC012496267681,030
2006CaliforniaACC0111502311111613
2007CaliforniaACC82821,40613191811,587

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

66%

ML model output

Context Prob

66%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.62s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 81.2 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
24 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

8.18 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.318
Physical upside: 0.82 — elite athletic ceiling-0.300
37 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)