Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kalen Ballage
Kalen Ballage

Player breakdown

Kalen Ballage

Arizona St. · 2018 Draft Class

6-1228 lbs4th round, 131st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

42%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018MIA123619119560247
2019MIA1274135314630198
2020LAC888290320990389
2021PIT171236028044
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2014Arizona StateBig 120371123664176
2015Arizona StateBig 1201136274941668
2016Arizona StateBig 12012653614444691,005
2017Arizona StateBig 12015365761981738

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

42%

ML model output

Context Prob

42%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.46s forty — average speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.99 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381

Top Negative Factors

4.35s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)