Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Keenan Reynolds
Keenan Reynolds

Player breakdown

Keenan Reynolds

Navy · 2016 Draft Class

6th round, 182nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2012NavyAmerican Athletic71626491000649
2013NavyAmerican Athletic112801,26029001,260
2014NavyAmerican Athletic102311,18221001,182
2015NavyAmerican Athletic02411,22921001,229

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

51.4 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
81 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
0 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)