Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III

Player breakdown

Kenneth Walker III

Michigan St. · 2022 Draft Class

5-9211 lbs2nd round, 41st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~25
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 214NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2022SEA152281,05092716501,215
2023SEA1521990582925911,164
2024SEA111535737462991872
2025SEA172211,02753128201,309
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2019Wake ForestACC0905554215570
2020Wake ForestACC611957913330609
2021Michigan StateBig Ten92631,6361813891,725

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

97%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 114.7 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
1,725 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396

Top Negative Factors

8.18 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.318
13 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb best season rush share-0.220

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)