Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kerryon Johnson
Kerryon Johnson

Player breakdown

Kerryon Johnson

Auburn · 2018 Draft Class

5-11213 lbs2nd round, 43rd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~29
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

8%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018DET101186413322131854
2019DET81134033101271530
2020DET16521812191871368
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2015AuburnSEC046184213122306
2016AuburnSEC01738621116120982
2017AuburnSEC102631,32017231881,508

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

8%

ML model output

Context Prob

8%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Catch radius: 91.0 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236
32 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
13 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart+0.135

Top Negative Factors

4.29s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)