Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kevin Smith
Kevin Smith

Player breakdown

Kevin Smith

Central Florida · 2008 Draft Class

6-1217 lbs3rd round, 64th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

64%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008DET1623897683928601,262
2009DET1321774744141511,162
2010DET6341330111230256
2011DET7723564221793535
2012DET1237134110791213
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005UCFBig 12622097667421,018
2006UCFBig 1252069347231581,092
2007UCFBig 12124152,44829212302,678

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

64%

ML model output

Context Prob

64%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,596 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.53s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 89.0 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.49s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
12.34 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)