Player breakdown
Leonard Fournette
LSU · 2017 Draft Class
6-0240 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | JAX | 13 | 268 | 1,040 | 9 | 36 | 302 | 1 | 1,342 |
| 2018 | JAX | 8 | 133 | 439 | 5 | 22 | 185 | 1 | 624 |
| 2019 | JAX | 15 | 265 | 1,152 | 3 | 76 | 522 | 0 | 1,674 |
| 2020 | TAM | 13 | 97 | 367 | 6 | 36 | 233 | 0 | 600 |
| 2021 | TAM | 14 | 180 | 812 | 8 | 69 | 454 | 2 | 1,266 |
| 2022 | TAM | 16 | 189 | 668 | 3 | 73 | 523 | 3 | 1,191 |
| 2023 | BUF | 2 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | LSU | SEC | 0 | 176 | 891 | 8 | 7 | 127 | 1,018 |
| 2015 | LSU | SEC | 0 | 271 | 1,741 | 18 | 18 | 209 | 1,950 |
| 2016 | LSU | SEC | 3 | 129 | 843 | 8 | 15 | 146 | 989 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
98%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 116.0 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.51s forty — average speed+0.395
Top Negative Factors
8.12 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.318
40 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
1758.7 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264