Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Lew Nichols
Lew Nichols

Player breakdown

Lew Nichols

Central Michigan · 2023 Draft Class

7th round, 235th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

16%

SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2019Central MichiganMid-American0198900089
2020Central MichiganMid-American378508410109617
2021Central MichiganMid-American103111,71015383002,010
2022Central MichiganMid-American0176616621128744

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

16%

ML model output

Context Prob

16%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
28 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)