Player breakdown
Lex Hilliard
Montana · 2008 Draft Class
6th round, 204th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~42
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
33%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | MIA | 16 | 23 | 89 | 1 | 20 | 158 | 2 | 247 |
| 2010 | MIA | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2011 | MIA | 16 | 16 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 90 |
| 2012 | NWE | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Montana | Big Sky | 9 | 249 | 1,322 | 12 | 11 | 144 | 1,466 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
33%
ML model output
Context Prob
33%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,466 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
54.3 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.325
Top Negative Factors
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284