Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Lex Hilliard
Lex Hilliard

Player breakdown

Lex Hilliard

Montana · 2008 Draft Class

6th round, 204th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~42
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

33%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2009MIA1623891201582247
2010MIA160001303
2011MIA1616411549090
2012NWE21200002
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005MontanaBig Sky92491,32212111441,466

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

33%

ML model output

Context Prob

33%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,466 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
54.3 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.325

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)