Player breakdown
Lincoln Pare
Texas State · 2026 Draft Class
Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 13 | 213 | 1,017 | 9 | 35 | 246 | 1,263 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
8%
ML model output
Context Prob
8%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
64.8 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.325
9 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188
Top Negative Factors
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush td rate-0.378
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337