Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Marcus Murphy
Marcus Murphy

Player breakdown

Marcus Murphy

Missouri · 2015 Draft Class

5-9198 lbs7th round, 230th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

38%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2015NOR131000000
2016NOR30001303
2017BUF1741027048
2018BUF1152250011260276
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2010MissouriSEC022181225186
2012MissouriSEC0462511922273
2013MissouriSEC08557191071642
2014MissouriSEC0165767426196963

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

38%

ML model output

Context Prob

38%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.61s forty — slow speed+0.395
4.86 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.295

Top Negative Factors

4.40s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
2 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
Physical upside: 0.84 — elite athletic ceiling-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)