Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Marion Barber III
Marion Barber III

Player breakdown

Marion Barber III

Minnesota · 2005 Draft Class

5-11221 lbs4th round, 109th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

90%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2005DAL131385385181150653
2006DAL1613565414231962850
2007DAL16204975104428221,257
2008DAL1523888575241721,302
2009DAL1521493272622101,153
2010DAL13113374411490423
2011CHI1111442265500472
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003MinnesotaBig Ten132101,23518121211,356
2004MinnesotaBig Ten01941,082103271,109

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

90%

ML model output

Context Prob

90%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 108.8 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.49s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 91.0 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

15 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb rush share of scrimmage-0.182
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output-0.174

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)