Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Mark Ingram
Mark Ingram

Player breakdown

Mark Ingram

Alabama · 2011 Draft Class

1st round, 28th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~36
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

81%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2011NOR10122474511460520
2012NOR1615660256290631
2013NOR117838617680454
2014NOR1322696492914501,109
2015NOR1216676965040501,174
2016NOR162051,04364631941,362
2017NOR162301,124125841601,540
2018NOR121386456211701815
2019BAL152021,018102624751,265
2020BAL117229926500349
2021NOR7682601201380398
2022NOR1062233116680301
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2008AlabamaSEC013570212646748
2009AlabamaSEC102711,65817323341,992
2010AlabamaSEC014681611202521,068

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

68%

ML model output

Context Prob

68%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
44 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)