Predicting the Pros
Predictions/MarShawn Lloyd
MarShawn Lloyd

Player breakdown

MarShawn Lloyd

USC · 2024 Draft Class

5-9220 lbs3rd round, 88th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
EliteMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

88%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2024GNB1615013018
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2021South CarolinaSEC1642281344272
2022South CarolinaSEC0111573918176749
2023USCBig Ten111168209132321,052

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

88%

ML model output

Context Prob

88%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 111.2 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.46s forty — average speed+0.395
4.78 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.295

Top Negative Factors

13 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Recruiting pedigree did not match production output-0.229
1,052 avg yards/season — elite per-season output-0.142

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)