Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Marshawn Lynch
Marshawn Lynch

Player breakdown

Marshawn Lynch

California · 2007 Draft Class

5-11215 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~40
EliteAll-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

94%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2007BUF132801,11571818401,299
2008BUF152501,03684730011,336
2009BUF131204502281790629
2010SEA121655736211380711
2011SEA152851,204122821211,416
2012SEA163151,590112319611,786
2013SEA163011,257123631621,573
2014SEA162801,306133736741,673
2015SEA7111417313800497
2017OAK1520789172015101,042
2018OAK690376315840460
2019SEA11234100034
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2004CaliforniaACC066602717137739
2005CaliforniaACC01721,052713981,150
2006CaliforniaACC02031,2459313111,556

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

91%

ML model output

Context Prob

91%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.46s forty — average speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

4.55s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
7.24 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
61 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)