Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matthew Dayes
Matthew Dayes

Player breakdown

Matthew Dayes

North Carolina St. · 2017 Draft Class

5-9205 lbs7th round, 252nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
HighMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

65%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017CLE165130429042
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013NC StateACC063252410173425
2014NC StateACC091495631303798
2015NC StateACC013486512241721,037
2016NC StateACC62401,11910312541,373

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

65%

ML model output

Context Prob

65%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.47s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 83.0 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
38 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

Rb rush yards per attempt-0.299
96 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
726.6 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)