Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Maurice Jones-Drew
Maurice Jones-Drew

Player breakdown

Maurice Jones-Drew

UCLA · 2006 Draft Class

5-7207 lbs2nd round, 60th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~41
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

89%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2006JAX16166941134643621,377
2007JAX1516776894040701,175
2008JAX16197824126256521,389
2009JAX163121,391155337411,765
2010JAX142991,32453431721,641
2011JAX163431,60684337431,980
2012JAX686414114861500
2013JAX1523480354331401,117
2014OAK124396011710167
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2004UCLABig Ten01358818182621,143
2005UCLABig Ten018390013294241,324

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

89%

ML model output

Context Prob

89%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 111.5 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.39s forty — elite sub-4.4 speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

4.38s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
47 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output-0.174

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)