Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Melvin Gordon
Melvin Gordon

Player breakdown

Melvin Gordon

Wisconsin · 2015 Draft Class

6-1215 lbs1st round, 15th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 2198NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

85%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2015SDG141846410331920833
2016SDG13254997104141921,416
2017LAC162841,10585847641,581
2018LAC12175885105049041,375
2019LAC121626128422961908
2020DEN1521598693215811,144
2021DEN1620391882821321,131
2022DEN10903182252230541
2023BAL4268113460127
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2011WisconsinBig Ten0209810098
2012WisconsinBig Ten0626213265686
2013WisconsinBig Ten71811,46612151,471
2014WisconsinBig Ten123092,33626171512,487

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

57%

ML model output

Context Prob

57%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.52s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 90.5 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.07s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness-0.665
2 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
11.57 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)