Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Michael Bush
Michael Bush

Player breakdown

Michael Bush

Louisville · 2007 Draft Class

6-1243 lbs4th round, 100th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

73%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008OAK15954213191620583
2009OAK161235893171050694
2010OAK141586558181940849
2011OAK1625697773741811,395
2012CHI1311441159830494
2013CHI156319734481245
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003LouisvilleACC520900459149
2004LouisvilleACC0120638711155793
2005LouisvilleACC91891,04923202451,294
2006LouisvilleACC117128313131

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

73%

ML model output

Context Prob

73%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.62s forty — slow speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.98 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381
35 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

36 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
4 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.241
591 avg yards/season — modest output-0.170

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)