Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Michael Carter
Michael Carter

Player breakdown

Michael Carter

North Carolina · 2021 Draft Class

5-7201 lbs4th round, 107th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

45%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2021NYJ141476394363250964
2022NYJ161144023412880690
2023ARI62214909331182
2024ARI335131111570188
2025ARI13923331332670600
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2017North CarolinaACC097558811100658
2018North CarolinaACC384597225135732
2019North CarolinaACC01599193201561,075
2020North CarolinaACC01561,2459252671,512

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

45%

ML model output

Context Prob

45%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.50s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 84.0 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227

Top Negative Factors

3.98s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness-0.665
7.52 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
81 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)