Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Michael Smith
Michael Smith

Player breakdown

Michael Smith

Utah St. · 2012 Draft Class

6-0183 lbs7th round, 212th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~38
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

26%

SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2009Utah StateMountain West046290419220510
2010Utah StateMountain West2241532323176
2011Utah StateMountain West5102713715171884

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

26%

ML model output

Context Prob

26%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.83 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.295
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227
17 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.54 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
37 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)