Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Nick Bawden
Nick Bawden

Player breakdown

Nick Bawden

San Diego St. · 2018 Draft Class

7th round, 237th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

5%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019DET10000417017
2021NYJ9000120020
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2014San Diego StateMountain West1114300043
2016San Diego StateMountain West014014117121
2017San Diego StateMountain West100014101101

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

5%

ML model output

Context Prob

5%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
1 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush td rate-0.411
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)