Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Noah Herron
Noah Herron

Player breakdown

Noah Herron

Northwestern · 2005 Draft Class

5-11224 lbs7th round, 244th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
HighMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

56%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2005GNB5451212000121
2006GNB16371501292112361
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003NorthwesternBig Ten12102583419235818
2004NorthwesternBig Ten92741,38114363511,732

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

56%

ML model output

Context Prob

56%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.60s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 86.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
20 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

3.97s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness-0.665
7.73 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
55 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)