Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ollie Gordon
Ollie Gordon

Player breakdown

Ollie Gordon

Oklahoma St. · 2025 Draft Class

6-1226 lbs6th round, 179th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~22
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2025MIA177019937321231
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2022Oklahoma StateBig 1205026321175338
2023Oklahoma StateBig 12142581,61420373261,940
2024Oklahoma StateBig 121219088013291791,059

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

93%

ML model output

Context Prob

93%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.61s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 90.2 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

8.58 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
77 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb rush yards per game-0.142

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)