Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Paul Perkins
Paul Perkins

Player breakdown

Paul Perkins

UCLA · 2016 Draft Class

5-11185 lbs5th round, 149th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~31
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

21%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2016NYG141124560151620618
2017NYG11419008460136
2019DET41229019038
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013UCLABig Ten5126570523286856
2014UCLABig Ten62301,3787262011,579
2015UCLABig Ten02251,27513272341,509

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

21%

ML model output

Context Prob

21%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

28 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175
Rb rush share of scrimmage+0.123

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
8.54 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Physical upside: 0.54 — average athletic ceiling-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)