Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Rashaad Penny
Rashaad Penny

Player breakdown

Rashaad Penny

San Diego St. · 2018 Draft Class

5-11220 lbs1st round, 27th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

93%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018SEA148541929750494
2019SEA106537038831453
2020SEA31134000034
2021SEA1011974966480797
2022SEA55734624160362
2023PHI31133015038
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2014San Diego StateMountain West022200022
2015San Diego StateMountain West05835148120471
2016San Diego StateMountain West012699511142201,215
2017San Diego StateMountain West02752,02719181422,169

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

90%

ML model output

Context Prob

90%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.46s forty — average speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

9.86 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
40 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb best season rush share-0.220

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)