Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Rashard Mendenhall
Rashard Mendenhall

Player breakdown

Rashard Mendenhall

Illinois · 2008 Draft Class

5-10225 lbs1st round, 23rd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008PIT419580217075
2009PIT162421,10872526111,369
2010PIT163241,273132316701,440
2011PIT1522892891815401,082
2012PIT65118209621244
2013ARI152176878181340821
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005IllinoisBig Ten24821801382300
2006IllinoisBig Ten578640512164804
2007IllinoisBig Ten92451,52616292591,785

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

92%

ML model output

Context Prob

92%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 119.0 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.41s forty — average speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

4.18s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
7.93 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
54 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)