Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ray Davis
Ray Davis

Player breakdown

Ray Davis

Kentucky · 2024 Draft Class

4th round, 128th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~26
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

49%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2024BUF171134423171893631
2025BUF1758275010862361
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2019TempleAmerican Athletic61789007131371,037
2020TempleAmerican Athletic27830811262370
2021VanderbiltSEC1442111527238
2022VanderbiltSEC02321,0425291691,211
2023KentuckySEC131861,06613293171,383

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

49%

ML model output

Context Prob

49%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
1,383 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.351
20 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)