Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ray Rice
Ray Rice

Player breakdown

Ray Rice

Rutgers · 2008 Draft Class

5-8199 lbs2nd round, 55th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

67%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008BAL131074540332730727
2009BAL162541,33977870212,041
2010BAL163071,22056355611,776
2011BAL162911,364127670432,068
2012BAL162571,14396147811,621
2013BAL152146604583210981
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005RutgersBig Ten31751,01257391,051
2006RutgersBig Ten113111,624194301,654
2007RutgersBig Ten103451,73220232241,956

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

67%

ML model output

Context Prob

67%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,553 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.42s forty — average speed+0.395
Conference-adjusted speed score: 104.3 — speed measured against quality competition+0.280

Top Negative Factors

4.20s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
9.83 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)