Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Reggie Bush
Reggie Bush

Player breakdown

Reggie Bush

USC · 2006 Draft Class

5-11201 lbs1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~41
EliteHeisman x1Doak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 2541NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2006NOR1615556568874221,307
2007NOR121575814734172998
2008NOR101064042524404844
2009NOR14703905473353725
2010NOR8361500342081358
2011MIA152161,08664329611,382
2012MIA1622798663529221,278
2013DET142231,00645450631,512
2014DET11762972402530550
2015SFO58280419047
2016BUF1312-31790087
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003USCBig Ten1387548314321869
2004USCBig Ten01378336414781,311
2005USCBig Ten01871,65815313832,041

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

97%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 110.2 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.37s forty — elite sub-4.4 speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

10.15 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
86 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
432.9 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)