Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Rhett Ellison
Rhett Ellison

Player breakdown

Rhett Ellison

USC · 2012 Draft Class

4th round, 128th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

3%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2013MIN11000561161
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2008USCBig Ten000045858
2009USCBig Ten100064141
2010USCBig Ten300021239239
2011USCBig Ten200022133133

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

3%

ML model output

Context Prob

3%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
6 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush td rate-0.411
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)