Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Royce Freeman
Royce Freeman

Player breakdown

Royce Freeman

Oregon · 2018 Draft Class

5-11229 lbs3rd round, 71st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
EliteMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

77%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018DEN14130521514720593
2019DEN161324963432561752
2020DEN1635170012810251
2021HOU7359207620154
2022HOU44111706330150
2023LAR147731921130332
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2014OregonBig Ten102301,29916141391,438
2015OregonBig Ten02571,70614243252,031
2016OregonBig Ten61689459231441,089
2017OregonBig Ten62441,47516141641,639

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

77%

ML model output

Context Prob

77%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 107.8 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
1,549 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.54s forty — average speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

4.16s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
8.87 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
75 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)