Player breakdown
Ryan Mathews
Fresno St. · 2010 Draft Class
6-0218 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~38
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
81%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | SDG | 12 | 158 | 678 | 7 | 22 | 145 | 0 | 823 |
| 2011 | SDG | 14 | 222 | 1,091 | 6 | 50 | 455 | 0 | 1,546 |
| 2012 | SDG | 12 | 184 | 707 | 1 | 39 | 252 | 0 | 959 |
| 2013 | SDG | 16 | 285 | 1,255 | 6 | 26 | 189 | 1 | 1,444 |
| 2014 | SDG | 6 | 74 | 330 | 3 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 399 |
| 2015 | PHI | 13 | 106 | 539 | 6 | 20 | 146 | 1 | 685 |
| 2016 | PHI | 13 | 155 | 661 | 8 | 13 | 115 | 1 | 776 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 9 | 145 | 866 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 866 |
| 2008 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 5 | 109 | 593 | 6 | 8 | 146 | 739 |
| 2009 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 9 | 276 | 1,808 | 19 | 11 | 122 | 1,930 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
76%
ML model output
Context Prob
76%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.37s forty — elite sub-4.4 speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.99 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381
Top Negative Factors
4.33s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
8.85 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
19 career receptions — limited volume-0.278