Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley

Player breakdown

Saquon Barkley

Penn St. · 2018 Draft Class

1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~29
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

85%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018NYG162611,307119172142,028
2019NYG132171,00365243821,441
2020NYG219340660094
2021NYG131625932412632856
2022NYG162951,312105733801,650
2023NYG1424796264128041,242
2024PHI163452,005133327822,283
2025PHI162801,14073727321,413
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2015Penn StateBig Ten01651,0077151481,155
2016Penn StateBig Ten02471,30216233471,649
2017Penn StateBig Ten01991,13416475941,728

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

82%

ML model output

Context Prob

82%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
1,510 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)