Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Spencer Ware
Spencer Ware

Player breakdown

Spencer Ware

LSU · 2013 Draft Class

5-10228 lbs6th round, 194th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~34
Low1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2013SEA2310000010
2015KAN11724036650408
2016KAN1421492133344721,368
2018KAN13512462202240470
2019KAN317510522073
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2010LSUSEC214731884157
2011LSUSEC617470081075775
2012LSUSEC294367118230597

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.62s forty — slow speed+0.395
3.40 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
12 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

Rb rush td rate-0.411
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)