Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Toby Gerhart
Toby Gerhart

Player breakdown

Toby Gerhart

Stanford · 2010 Draft Class

6-0231 lbs2nd round, 51st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 2222NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

85%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2010MIN15813221211670489
2011MIN161095311231903721
2012MIN16501691201550324
2013MIN1436283213880371
2014JAX141013262201860512
2015JAX720440323067
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2006StanfordACC0106375015124499
2007StanfordACC112140100140
2008StanfordACC92101,13615131141,250
2009StanfordACC113431,87127111572,028

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

64%

ML model output

Context Prob

64%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.50s forty — average speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.98 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381

Top Negative Factors

4.25s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
8.78 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)