Player breakdown
Toby Gerhart
Stanford · 2010 Draft Class
6-0231 lbs2nd round, 51st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 2222NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | MIN | 15 | 81 | 322 | 1 | 21 | 167 | 0 | 489 |
| 2011 | MIN | 16 | 109 | 531 | 1 | 23 | 190 | 3 | 721 |
| 2012 | MIN | 16 | 50 | 169 | 1 | 20 | 155 | 0 | 324 |
| 2013 | MIN | 14 | 36 | 283 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 0 | 371 |
| 2014 | JAX | 14 | 101 | 326 | 2 | 20 | 186 | 0 | 512 |
| 2015 | JAX | 7 | 20 | 44 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 67 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Stanford | ACC | 0 | 106 | 375 | 0 | 15 | 124 | 499 |
| 2007 | Stanford | ACC | 1 | 12 | 140 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 140 |
| 2008 | Stanford | ACC | 9 | 210 | 1,136 | 15 | 13 | 114 | 1,250 |
| 2009 | Stanford | ACC | 11 | 343 | 1,871 | 27 | 11 | 157 | 2,028 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
64%
ML model output
Context Prob
64%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.50s forty — average speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.98 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381
Top Negative Factors
4.25s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
8.78 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324